الصفحات

Alexandria Engineeing Libraries

بحث هذه المدونة الإلكترونية

شرح طريقة تحميل الامتحانات من المدونة

الأحد، 23 مارس، 2014

Expectation of Cash Flow For Road Construction Projects in Egypt

Title:   Expectation of Cash Flow For Road Construction Projects in Egypt
AuthorRana Hazem Fouda 
CollectionM.Eng. Structural 
 Abstract:  
This paper presents a cash flow prediction model for road projects. This model based on the analysis of actual current invoices and payments data of road construction projects. Initial results indicate that this simple model predicts future cash flows better than models based on current cash flows alone. In this study the main concern is to look at highway road tender projects. This investigation could be used by road authorities who manage multiple projects. It could be used to provide a tool to forecast future project payments. Recent account summaries of General Authority for Road, Bridges and Land Transporting (GARBLT) projects from 2003 to 2012 were analyzed. This data is used for creating mathematical models representing monthly payments for various projects. Financial data for cost estimates are collected from 28 highway road tender projects (including 16 highway strengthening tender projects and 8 highway overlay tender projects). The data were organized into categories of project types and subcategories of project contract amount. A seventh degree polynomial regression analysis was run on the data and the regression curve. Statistically equations were taken to be the forecast payment curve. Finally, a computer program (Excel sheet) was developed to implement the results of the investigation. This sheet was named as Multi Road Projects Cash Flow Model (MRP _ cash flow model). The methodology provided will help all highway agencies to apply their own projects to better predict projects cash flow and trends. This investigation might also benefit researchers in projecting cash flows and trends. Also any agency could provide improvements for the model. After that the model was fitted. The tender information concept was applied to analyze and diagram cash flow estimations for the execution stage of contracted projects. The goal is to understand short-term financial demands that occur during the execution stage. Also, using this model leads to a better understanding bankruptcy of cash flow problems. The analysis of the model application is simple. All the calculations can be done with a trial balance software package such as Excel. In practice, owners of the road projects can use the model to preview the cash distribution and amount demanded before projects are executed. Once construction is under way, data from the actual project cash flow can be used to update and revise the predictions. The results of the MRP model depends on real payments data of road construction projects as mentioned above. It means that delays and ordinary obstacles are taken into account. These delays and obstacles were created by the surrounded environment. These delays has a great effect on the road construction projects as constructing of roads demands dealing with other authorities, citizens of the country, weather, natural disasters and also executing problems. Sometimes there is an unexpected obstacle that appears during the execution of road construction projects. It could be a reason of a long delay in the time table of the project. Off course this delay affects the cash flow plan of the project which is not considered in our cash flow model. Claims in construction road projects are hard to be expected and need a detailed study. So, the MRP cash flow model ignored this claims. The aim of this model is to have a future expectation of the cash flow for several road projects without taking any claims into account. This point could be a good entrance for future researches that studies cash flow expectation.

ليست هناك تعليقات:

إرسال تعليق